After 82 regular season games, 3 rounds of playoff games and a heap of practice sessions, we are finally here, standing on the eve of the 2013 NBA Finals series between the two best sides in the NBA – the Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs.
Now that it all boils down to this best of seven series, I am going to give you the most in depth and comprehensive guide to the 2013 NBA Finals. I will break down both teams, look at their strengths and weaknesses, the matchups, the numbers and then add my own opinion to see who I believe will be crowned NBA Champion and hold the Larry O’Brien trophy aloft in just over a weeks time.
So let’s get stuck into it.
Regular season record – Miami wins 2-0.Now let’s not read too much into this – for starters, the regular season is not always an accurate gauge of how these two teams will or do match up. More so with both these sides as those who have followed the season will know that on both occasions neither team was at full strength and that Commissioner David Stern gave Coach Pop a fine and a “stern” stalking to for resting all of his star players. Miami still won both games though and for this they will start favourites in my book (well that and the fact that they Heat are the NBA’s best team, are the reigning champs and won a massive number of games throughout the regular season including the “streak”). I think the fact that we have not seen both these teams in full flight against each other makes this finals series more intriguing.
Form – San Antonio has the advantage.The Spurs will be coming off just over a week’s break – 9 days to be exact, which is just what the doctor ordered for the aging San Antonio Spurs. They will be able to rest up, relax, study game film, work strategies etc and for that they will be better off. The reason they were able to secure such a break before the finals was because of their systematic dismantling of the Memphis Grizzlies. A team that seemed built to give the Spurs a run for their money with their big frontline and speedy point guard, was swept aside by the machine that is the Spurs. They are in fine form as a team and individually, with Tim Duncan playing like he is a young stud and Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker not seeming to know what slow down means. Miami on the other hand have had a gritty seven game series against a tough and physical Indiana Pacers squad. Add to the additional games the fact that they were physically and mentally intense and the fact that Miami have some injury concerns and I have to give the edge to the team from Texas.
OffenseThis is an area of great interest for a number of reasons. While the Miami Heat are by far and away the most potent offensive juggernaught still playing, they are facing a team oriented offense that knows how to operate. The Spurs are first in assists this post-season with 23.6 per game while Miami have 20.3 per game. It is LeBron James and to a lesser extent Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh against the San Antonio structure. When you have the best player in the game there is no doubt you play to their strengths and LeBron James has plenty of them. However, on the flip side, when you don’t have a “superstar” scorer, you need to make the most effective and efficient compromise and that is the San Antonio way. They will rely heavily on Tim Duncan down low, Tony Parker’s drive and Manu’s x-factor but they just don’t have the leagues best player. LeBron showed during the Pacers series that he is the man, but in order to overcome the plucky Pacers, he needed the support crew to come through – and Dwyane Wade obliged. Miami will need this support in every game this series. San Antonio will not turn the ball over as much as the Pacers did (only 11.7 per game) so the Heat won’t get those easy transition buckets. The Spurs can cover lackustre performances a little better due to their depth, but if they can’t execute their offense, they are in real trouble.
DefenceThey say that defence wins championships and I actually think this is going to ring true. It is going to take a monumental effort to cool off the Heat-wave and it is going to take 48mins every game to grind this out. Not only do both teams have to defend as a team, but there are elements within each team that are going to cause the opposing teams problems. The Spurs are going to have to try and find an answer for James – hands down this is THE most important thing in this series (and most certainly the hardest!). In the off chance they can limit LBJ”s effectiveness, they then need to keep Wade shooting jump shots and keep Bosh out of the post. Once again harder to do than say. The Heat on the flipside will need to try and keep Tony Parker out of the lane, they will have to find a way to guard Tim Duncan down low and they will need to keep the jump shooters like Leonard and Danny Green off their spots. I actually think it will be easier for the Heat to harass and annoy the Spurs than it will be for San Antonio to stop the athletic Heat.
Athleticism vs ExperienceThis is an interesting area for analysis because the Spurs are not the flat footed, labouring, slow it down team that everyone thinks they are. They have a good blend of physically gifted players like Kawhi Leonard and the wily veterans like Tony, Tim and Manu. The Heat are by no means inexperienced though – this being their third trip to the NBA Finals in 3 years. They know how they lost, they know how to win and on top of ALL that, they are athletic to boot. Even though Wade will be going into this far from 100% he is still a damaging player and enough has already been said about James. I cannot split these two teams as an overall package and when you have 4 Finals MVP’s on the floor together, anything is possible.
DepthWhen you have the big three, you don’t need much else – unless you are playing the San Antonio Spurs. The Heat have the most talented team and the Spurs are the most talented team. It all comes down to what happens when the stars of the series are on the pine getting a well earned rest. The Spurs are able to bring in a number of key reserves to do the job, the Heat are able to bring in more talented players to do the job. Miami will roll out Ray Allen and Shane Battier as their two key reserves and add to that Norris Cole or Mario Chalmers (depending on who gets the start). Arguably the most important bench player to Miami’s fortunes is The Birdman. His energy, hustle and size is going to be a key to this series. San Antonio will roll out probably the deeper bench starting with Manu Ginobili and Boris Diaw. They also have Matt Bonner who is underrated but is vital to this teams success. Once you throw Tiago Splitter into the mix, you can see why many believe that San Antonio are the deeper team. The biggest question is though, does a deep bench mean a good bench? THAT question could really guide this series.
Questions
- There are a number of key questions that I see in this series. Can Dwyane Wade have enough good games, have enough of an impact when in those games to give LeBron the help he needs?
- Can the Spurs stop or limit LeBron’s effectiveness?
- Can the Spurs beat the Heat at home at least once while winning all the games on their home floor?
- Will the athleticism prove too much for the Spurs to handle?
- Will the Spurs execute often enough and well enough to beat the Heat four times?
- How will the past experience of losing to the Spurs fuel LeBron? Will it make him go HAM or will it take him away from what the Heat want to do?
I said this was a comprehensive guide, but I never said I wouldn’t also ask for your assistance! This isn’t a one-way street you know!
Final ThoughtsI am super excited for this series – to tell you the truth I wouldn’t care who was playing, I just love the NBA Finals. I think that this is the best matchup we could have hoped for though under the circumstances. The stage is set, the teams are polar opposites, there is the history element and the fact that this could be the last run at a title the Spurs get for a long time. It also allows the Heat and LeBron especially the chance to cement his / their legacy and to prove that the Big Three are just as good as advertised.
I hope it goes the full seven games. Part of me hopes Tim Duncan and Tony Parker get another ring as LBJ will have plenty more opportunities, but the Heat have been the best team all year and deserve the biggest prize.
The Heat are overwhelming favourites among basketball analysts, with the bookies and with the general public – so I am going an upset – San Antonio in 6.
