The two best teams in the East are now locked in and ready to do battle. The Miami Heat were meant to be here, the Indiana Pacers were not. This shapes as a truly epic series however, with both sides holding a grudge over how last post season turned out and both teams wanting to do everything in their power to make it to the NBA Finals. So let’s have a look at what we might expect from both teams in this series and who we think might earn a trip to the big dance.
As Biggie would say – “Things done changed”. Those who are looking at this from a perspective of “last year” may as well throw their analysis out the window. So much has changed on both sides since their heated playoff series last season that saw the Pacers actually take a 2-1 lead before the Heat dug themselves out of the hole and went on to win the NBA Championship. The Pacers no longer have their leading scorer in Danny Granger and the Heat have Chris Bosh back and healthy. This is the first and biggest difference. Bosh is arguably the most important player on the Heat roster (no, I didn’t say best) and he is ready to ball. They have also added Ray Allen who was a Celtic at this time last year and they have tried to solidify the frontcourt by bringing in the Birdman. Indiana however, have assembled a cast of decent role players and have watched the emergence of first time All Star and NBA Most Improved Player Paul George. Lance Stephenson was instrumental in the Pacers defeating the Knicks, and George Hill is more important than anyone could have imagined. These changes mean that we are likely to see a different series to the one we saw last year, and I think they play out in Miami’s favour. Although the regular season saw the Pacers take their series match up 2-1, the playoffs are a totally different ball game.
Miami have the best player in the game – LeBron James. They also have a heap of experience and depth at the shooting guard position (Dwyane Wade and Ray Allen). Chris Bosh is a matchup nightmare because he can shoot the basketball but also put pressure on the paint. Actually, the Heat’s Big 3 (LBJ, Flash, Bosh) are arguably better than everyone on the Pacers roster. If the three best players in the series are on the one team, that is surely going to be very difficult to contend with. The Pacers couldn’t defeat the Heat when they were down and out, without Bosh and before the slick shooting Ray Allen came to town, so why are people even giving the Pacers a chance in this one?
Anything can happen in a seven game series. Injuries, form and shooting slumps, exploiting matchups, failure to adapt to lineups etc all play more of a role in winning than they did a month or so ago. The Indiana Pacers have a BIG frontline that is likely to cause Miami some headaches. Roy Hibbert is a true centre, a big bodied baller who bangs and crashes down low while protecting the rim and is a good source of offence. His partner in crime is the veteran savvy David West who is a former All Star and very good low post scorer and above average leader. The Pacers will be hoping that this size and strength might assist Indiana in securing some wins and allowing the guards to focus on the defensive end of the floor against the super talented Heat squad. It might work. The Pacers were able to make the New York Knicks shoot from the perimeter (not that NY mind doing that) but it also deterred them from driving the lanes and therefore they couldn’t get easy points at the line. The Heat attack the rim relentlessly and this could go either way – get the Pacer bigs in foul trouble or force the Heat to adapt.
Then we have “the” matchup – who on earth can guard LeBron. The task will ultimately fall on the team as a whole, but there is little doubt that Paul George will be given the task of trying to stop the “Chosen One”. This poses all sorts of problems for Indiana as they rely heavily on Paul George on the offensive end to put up a winning score. If he has to focus on defending LBJ all the time, will that adversely effect the Pacers? Who can fill that scoring void if PG24 struggles? The Pacers have been scoring and winning as a team, sometimes lead by George, others by Hill and West. In their close out game against the Knicks it was Stephenson. They will need a complete team performance each and every game if they are going to make this a series against the Heat.
I believe the biggest area for concern is not a particular player or match up, it is a particular stat category – turnovers. The Pacers turn the ball over far too often and against the Heat that is deadly. Miami love to get out into the open floor and get buckets. Their transition game is second to none, and they will beat you like you stole something if they are allowed to run and gun. Indiana will have to do a much better job at protecting the ball not just to stop the Heat’s transition game, but to also not miss scoring opportunities. It will be hard enough for them to score the ball against Miami, they better not waste opportunities.
All in all, the Miami Heat are still the best team in basketball. They cruised through Milwaukee and then went on a holiday. They dropped an early one to the Bulls when they came back from their break and that was more due to rust and cobwebs than the Bulls (although in Chicago’s defence they really did ball outta their mind!). You better believe that the Heat are ready to demolish the Pacers. They remember last season, last series, the physical play, the 2-1 hole that could have ended their season. Make no mistake, the Heat want to repeat and more importantly, LeBron wants to repeat. A second ring will help establish him as one of the best ever and he wants that.
Dwyane Wade will be the x-factor in the series. Can he stay healthy and can he contribute enough to be a point of difference? Paul George is the other. Can he outplay DWade and guard LeBron? Can he hit clutch shots and lead this young team?
Interesting questions, interesting series. Miami Heat 4-2. Let’s get it on!
